As families gather for the holidays on December 24, 2025, the weather outside is telling a very different story than the calendars suggest. While late December usually brings freezing temperatures and snowstorms to much of the country, a large portion of the United States is facing a season that feels more like an extended autumn. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a stark forecast indicating that seven specific states may essentially run out of winter this year due to persistent, abnormally high temperatures.
This unusual weather pattern is not just a fluke. Meteorologists warn that a stable high pressure system has parked itself over the Southwest and Southern Plains. This atmospheric block is preventing cold air from Canada from moving south and is keeping moisture at bay. For millions of residents, the heavy coats and snow shovels might stay in storage, as the familiar chill of the season struggles to make an appearance.
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Understanding the Missing Winter Forecast
The latest data released by NOAA points to a significant deviation from historical norms. Typically, the jet stream dips during these months, allowing arctic air to spill into the central and southern United States. However, this year the jet stream is staying further north. This shift is trapping warm air across a massive region, leading to temperatures that are consistently 10 to 15 degrees above average.
This phenomenon is creating what experts describe as a muted winter. While brief cold snaps are still possible, the sustained freezing conditions necessary for snowpack accumulation are largely absent. This forecast is particularly concerning because it covers the peak months of December, January, and February, which are critical for building up the water supply for the rest of the year.
The Seven States Facing a Warm Season
The warning specifically targets a cluster of states in the Southwest and the Southern Plains. These regions are accustomed to varying degrees of winter weather, but this year stands out for its predicted dryness and warmth. The states identified in the NOAA report are Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Western Oklahoma, and Southern Kansas.
For residents in these areas, the change is palpable. Ski resorts in Colorado and Utah are relying heavily on artificial snow making, while ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma are watching soil moisture levels drop. The lack of natural snow and rain during this period could have lingering effects well into the spring and summer of 2026.
Comparison of Typical vs. Forecasted Conditions
The table below illustrates the stark difference between a standard winter and what is currently predicted for the affected regions.
| Region | Typical Winter Conditions | 2025 Forecasted Conditions |
| Utah & Colorado | Heavy mountain snow, freezing valleys | Below average snow, mild valleys |
| Arizona & New Mexico | Cool days, freezing nights, mountain snow | Warm days, above freezing nights, dry |
| Texas & Oklahoma | Occasional ice storms, variable cold | Consistently warm, very dry |
| Southern Kansas | Freezing temps, moderate snow | Above average temps, minimal precipitation |
Why High Pressure Is Blocking the Cold
The primary culprit behind this vanished winter is a stubborn ridge of high pressure. In the world of meteorology, high pressure acts like a dome. It pushes air downward, which suppresses cloud formation and precipitation. It also acts as a shield, deflecting incoming storms away from the region.
When such a system becomes stationary, as it has this month, it creates a feedback loop. The dry ground heats up faster than moist ground, which in turn reinforces the high pressure ridge. This pattern is notoriously difficult to break without a major shift in the global wind currents. Until this ridge moves, the door to the Arctic remains firmly shut for these seven states.
Economic and Environmental Ripple Effects
A winter without snow is more than just a disappointment for holiday enthusiasts. It poses real economic risks. The winter tourism industry, particularly in the Rockies, depends on reliable snowfall. When the natural powder fails to arrive, visitor numbers often drop, impacting local businesses that rely on that seasonal revenue.
Environmentally, the stakes are even higher. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, storing water in the mountains that slowly melts to feed rivers and lakes during the dry summer months. A deficit now means a potential water shortage later. For agricultural states like Kansas and Texas, the lack of winter moisture can stress winter wheat crops and reduce yields for the coming harvest.
Key Impacts on Daily Life
- Winter recreation activities like skiing and snowmobiling may be limited or rely on artificial snow.
- Heating bills may be lower than usual, but water bills could rise later due to scarcity.
- Allergies could start earlier as plants may not enter a full dormancy period.
- Farmers may face challenges with dry soil conditions affecting crop planning.
- Wildfire risks could increase earlier in the year due to dry vegetation.
